Weekly Stock Pick
Posted on August 25, 2008 at 06:54 AM EDT
I come up with my stock picks by scanning about 7000 stocks with a trading software that screens for certain chart patterns that provides what is called a low risk high reward trade or investment. Low risk meaning, the stop-loss exit point in case the market proves me wrong is relatively small compared to the potential reward in case the market proves me right. I’m looking for trades and or investments that can potentially provide me a 3:1 plus reward risk ratio. Meaning, I can potentially make three times gain as opposed to the amount I would lose. Doing this is the difference between smaller linear returns, or much larger exponential returns. Doing this over the long term provides me good returns with minimum losses, at least in theory anyway. So by following the system, I have a long term plan for success in the markets. Deviating from any reliable trading system is a recipe for financial disaster. The scans are purely technical analysis from the charts. After analysis of the scanned stocks, then I narrow my pick down with past and forward analysis of the company and its fundamentals and the story behind their fundamentals. After that I look at their competitors and how they make affect the company in question on their market share and profitability going forward. I try to keep the analysis simple. Don’t want to waste time energy and money on analysis paralysis. That’s what my stop-loss is for in case I’m wrong, and everyone is wrong in the markets, they just keep the loss small is why they are long-term winners. Stop-loss can be set into online trading account, thereby letting the market makers see your order. Or you can us a mental stop, which you would then manually execute once the price hit your mental stop-loss. Whether you use one or the other or both, the main thing is that you use stop-loss to trade and invest another day. After scanning the stocks this week, I’m taking a bet on the Asia gamblers flying into Macau. Buy Long Wynns Resorts. Ticker WYNN Long Entry: 90.01 to 95.92 Stop-Loss: 81.44 to 79.93. Take Profit Areas: Very Short Term: 107.74 to 113.65 Short Term: 119.98 to 129.05 Intermediate Term: 134.22 to 144.37 Long Term: 163.67 to 175.94 Longer Term: 202.21 to 217.50 Wynn Resorts Story Wynns revenues are mostly coming from its Macau resort currently as Las Vegas is slowing. Having been to Asia and its casinos many times, the Asians love to gamble, they have the money to do it, and there are a lot of them doing it. I’m betting they will keep doing it and with Wynn as one of the beneficiaries. There are plenty of pros and cons on Wynn and the gaming sector right now from the big investment houses. I’ll leave it to you to research and analyze all of that. Wynn Resorts News from their website. Wynn Resorts, Limited Posts Record Revenue and EBITDA for the Second Quarter of 2008 LAS VEGAS--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 24, 2008--Wynn Resorts, Limited (Nasdaq: WYNN) today reported financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2008. Net revenues for the second quarter of 2008 were $825.2 million, compared to $687.5 million in the second quarter of 2007. The revenue increase was driven primarily by a 50.3% increase in revenues at Wynn Macau. Consolidated adjusted property EBITDA(1) increased 14.0% to $237.0 million for the second quarter of 2008, compared to $208.0 million in the second quarter of 2007. On a US GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) basis, net income for the quarter was $272.0 million, or $2.42 per diluted share, compared to net income of $89.6 million, or $0.82 per diluted share in 2007. The increase resulted from higher earnings from Wynn Macau and a $140.7 million deferred tax benefit recorded during the quarter. Adjusted net income in the second quarter of 2008 was $124.3 million, or $1.11 per diluted share (adjusted EPS)(2) compared to an adjusted net income of $100.8 million, or $0.92 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2007. Wynn Company Profile Wynn Resorts, Limited (Wynn Resorts) is a developer, owner and operator of destination casino resorts. It owns and operates two destination casino resorts: Wynn Las Vegas, on the Strip in Las Vegas, Nevada, and Wynn Macau, located in the Macau Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China (Macau). The Company is also constructing Encore Suites at Wynn Las Vegas (Encore) and Wynn Diamond Suites at Wynn Macau. The Company’s segments include Wynn Las Vegas, which includes Encore, and Wynn Macau. Click here to review and Trial the Trading Software I used in determining my buy long position on WYNN.
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