New Gold Setup to End Bullish Run Dec. 29
By:
COTs Timer
Posted on December 23, 2008 at 09:45 AM EST
My brand new COTs Timer trading setup for gold will end its five-week bullish signal on next week's open of trading. It's been bullish since Nov. 24. I've just posted the results and parameter values for the new setup on my latest signal table. On Dec. 29, the setup will either go to cash or bearish. This setup is the second one I've developed based on my new testing that includes detrended price data (in which the long-term bullish or bearish bias of the prices is stripped away) and Monte Carlo testing (which sees how the setup would have done in 6,000-plus randomized market runs). My first new setup using these tests was for the S&P 500. See more on that one here.
My gold setup uses two groups of traders to come up with long, short or cash calls. It's been in the market only 44 percent of the time since 1995, yet beat gold handily. If the two traders don't agree, the setup goes to cash. The first signal fades (trades opposite to) the large speculators when their net percentage-of-open-interest position hits extremes of positioning. It has no trade delay. This setup remains bullish this week. The second signal fades the large specs when their total open interest hits positioning extremes. This setup gave a bearish signal the week of Nov. 4 and stayed bearish three weeks before going back to bullish. So with the trade delay of seven weeks it will put the overall setup either in cash or bearish next week, depending on what the first setup does. See all the details in the notes to that table. I'll upload a sample spreadsheet for this setup at some point soon.
Portfolio Update: Also, just updated my portfolio page with current positioning based on my COTs Timer trading system and a recently closed trade for my Nikkei trading setup. Hope you have a great holiday and good luck in the New Year.
TAGS: gold, S&P 500, SPX, Nikkei, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, Monte Carlo, walk-around testing if(typeof Wikinvest!= undefined) { if(typeof Wikinvest.Wire != undefined) { Wikinvest.Wire.GetRelatedContent('1620901103425467906', 'http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/2008/12/new-spx-setup-bearish.html', 'New SPX Setup Bearish', 'AlexRoslin', '3'); } }
Portfolio Update: Also, just updated my portfolio page with current positioning based on my COTs Timer trading system and a recently closed trade for my Nikkei trading setup. Hope you have a great holiday and good luck in the New Year.
TAGS: gold, S&P 500, SPX, Nikkei, COT, Commitments of Traders, derivatives, Black Swans, market timing, trading system development, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, COTs Timer, out-of-sample testing, Monte Carlo, walk-around testing if(typeof Wikinvest!= undefined) { if(typeof Wikinvest.Wire != undefined) { Wikinvest.Wire.GetRelatedContent('1620901103425467906', 'http://cotstimer.blogspot.com/2008/12/new-spx-setup-bearish.html', 'New SPX Setup Bearish', 'AlexRoslin', '3'); } }
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