Fitch Rates Lower Colorado River Auth, TX Transmission Contract Rev Bonds 'A+'; Outlook Stable

Fitch Ratings assigns an 'A+' rating to the following Lower Colorado River Authority, TX (LCRA) bonds issued on behalf of the LCRA Transmission Services Corporation (TSC) project:

--Approximately $250 million transmission contract refunding revenue bonds, series 2013A;

--Approximately $20 million transmission contract refunding revenue bonds, series 2013B.

Bond proceeds will be used to refund outstanding bonds for savings. LCRA will fund a debt service reserve fund from proceeds and funds released from the reserve fund for the refunded bonds equal to 50% of maximum annual debt service on the bonds.

In addition, Fitch affirms the rating on outstanding LCRA debt issued for the TSC project as follows:

--$1.42 billion in outstanding transmission revenue bonds at 'A+'.

The Rating Outlook is Stable.

SECURITY:

The bonds are issued by LCRA on behalf of the TSC and are secured by Installment Payments from TSC to LCRA. TSC's obligation to make the installment payments is from the net revenues of its transmission business. The obligation to pay installment payments is subordinate to contractual commitment payments made to LCRA, supporting approximately $280 million remaining obligation to LCRA for debt issued prior to 2002 for transmission purposes.

KEY RATING DRIVERS:

TRANSMISSION ENTITY: TSC is an LCRA transmission system-affiliated nonprofit corporation. Transmission is a regulated industry within the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and the revenues are paid by retail electric customers across the entire ERCOT system, which covers approximately 75% of the state of Texas.

STRONG REGULATORY SUPPORT: TSC is a regulated utility, subject to Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) rate approval. Timely rate approval and recovery, particularly the interim capital addition rate process, is a positive credit factor.

REVENUE DIVERSITY: TSC benefits from the geographic diversity and essential nature of transmission services within ERCOT. Revenues are collected from 94 distribution service providers (DSPs) within the ERCOT market.

RETAIL COMPETITION NOT A RISK: Transmission revenues are ultimately collected from every end-user of electricity within ERCOT. The transmission rate must be paid to TSC, regardless of whether a retail user changes energy suppliers, as is permitted under the deregulated retail energy market within ERCOT.

STABLE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: Debt service coverage is consistent with the regulated rate of return approved by the PUCT. Coverage is typically between 1.35x and 1.5x, depending on the timing of rate approvals. Liquidity was strong at $69.7 million at the end of fiscal-year 2012 and reflects the cash flow needs of the heavy construction phase of the capital plan.

LOWER CAPITAL SPENDING: TSC is finishing a large construction program, primarily consisting of designated projects deemed as a priority in the PUCT's competitive renewable energy zones (CREZs). Capital spending is expected to decline in 2014 to more modest levels.

LCRA RELATIONSHIP: There is operational and management overlap with LCRA (generation revenue bonds rated 'A' by Fitch), even though the revenue stream securing the transmission bonds is not paid from LCRA's other revenue sources (generation and water).

CREDIT PROFILE

Diverse, Regulated Revenue Stream

Transmission costs are determined by the PUC pursuant to rate cases filed by TSC and other transmission service providers (TSP). The transmission costs of service (TCOS) are spread among each DSP according to its load. The DSPs are regulated by the PUC and provide service within certificated service areas within ERCOT. Transmission services are not deregulated and subject to competition within ERCOT, as is the case with generation service.

Consistent Credit Quality of DSPs

TSC is a transmission service provider as defined by ERCOT. The DSPs are the traditional 'wires companies', whose primary business is the transmission and distribution of electricity. The PUC determines the reasonableness of the transmission costs submitted by each TSP. Those collective costs are then summed and allocated out to the distribution service providers within ERCOT. As a result, TSC's revenues are provided by all DSPs throughout ERCOT according to their four-month peak the prior year. Each DSP then makes a monthly payment to each TSP for its proportional share.

There is some concentration and credit risk related to the DSPs. The largest DSPs and payers of the transmission charges securing bondholders are Oncor Electric Delivery Service (37%; IDR 'BBB'/ Stable), CenterPoint Energy Houston Electric, LLC (25%; IDR 'BBB+'/Stable), AEP (9%; IDR 'BBB+'/Stable), and San Antonio City Public Service (7%; revenue bonds 'AA+'/Stable). The credit quality of Oncor Electric Delivery Services is considered by Fitch to be effectively ring-fenced from the rest of Energy Future Holdings Corp (IDR 'CC'), which contains generation assets within ERCOT.

DSPs receive their revenue, in turn, from the Retail Electric Providers (REPs). REPs serve as billing entities for the end-use retail customers. REPs contract with power generation companies to receive power and bill the retail electric customers for the cost of power plus the distribution and transmission costs (of the DSPs) in one consolidated bill. The DSPs remit payments monthly to the TSP, limiting the counterparty risk from these entities. A potential default from a DSP would be limited, given the PUC's ability to step in and transfer responsibility for that DSP's service area to another DSP.

Strong and Timely Regulatory Record

Timely rate recovery provided by the PUCT has been a positive credit factor since TSC began operations in 2002. There are two types of rate cases that provide more timely relief to TSC. The full TCOS rate case provides a full rate review in which all expenses and costs of capital are reviewed and adjusted for 'known and measurable' changes occurring after the test year. A TCOS rate case can be filed as frequently as TSC determines it is needed. The PUCT permits recovery of 0.25x above TSC's own 1.25x rate covenant for debt service costs from transmission-related projects. TSC's actual debt service coverage is usually slightly below the 1.5x level, given the carrying costs of construction projects underway and the delay in getting those construction project costs into transmission rates.

TSC's last TCOS was filed in Nov. 2011 and became effective March 2012. TSC received 98.3% of the amount requested, which is consistent with the three other TCOS filings in its history. TSC currently has no plans to file another TCOS rate case in the next five years.

The interim capital additions update (ICA) is a partial rate review in which rates are updated to reflect changes only in to the cost of invested capital and taxes since the prior TCOS rate case. TSC has typically filed ICAs annually but is able to file up to two per year. The ICAs are typically implemented more quickly than TCOS rate cases.

The ICA allows construction costs to be rolled into rates as soon as a project is in service, limiting the delay in rate recovery, to some degree, during a large capital program. Costs recoverable under the ICA are limited to invested capital with the previously approved rate of return, depreciation and taxes.

TSC has filed seven ICA filings since it began and has received the full amounts requested under those filings. The interim process with the PUCT has provided an advantageous mechanism to recover capital cost in a timely manner during the pace of TSC's large construction program over the past few years. TSC anticipates that it will file an ICA in fiscal 2014 and 2015 and does not forsee any additional filings in fiscals 2016-2018.

STABLE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

As a regulated utility, debt service coverage is a result of the regulated rate of return permitted by the PUCT of 1.5x debt-related expenses for capital projects. TSC's actual debt service coverage is typically between 1.35x and 1.5x, reflecting some lag between its incurrence of the costs and its receipt of those costs in rates. Coverage is projected to remain in this range.

Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings.

In addition to the sources of information identified in Fitch's Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria and U.S. Public Power Rating Criteria, this action was informed by information from CreditScope.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research:

--'Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria', June 12, 2012;

--'U.S. Public Power Rating Criteria', Jan. 11, 2012.

Applicable Criteria and Related Research

Revenue-Supported Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=681015

U.S. Public Power Rating Criteria

http://www.fitchratings.com/creditdesk/reports/report_frame.cfm?rpt_id=696027

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