Whipsaw Wednesday – Once More Unto the Breach, Dear Friends
" Or close up the wall with our English dead " is the 2nd part of that quote .   It's not a rally when the commodities sector is in free-fall, is it?  Not even Henry V could rally the materials sector but perhaps we'll find a bit of support at DBC $25.50 that we didn't find at $26.75 – just two days ago.  We've been bottom-fishing the sector with individual miners ( see this morning's Tweet from our Member Chat ) but, so far – there's no bottom ( Midsummer Night's Dream's lead character notwithstanding ).   As you can see from Dave Fry's chart , DBC hasn't broken down like this since last May so, of course, no one could have expected it to ever happen and, of course, it's the end of civilization as we know it and these stocks will just keep going down and down and down and will never recover because – this time is different! {end sarcasm font}  It's very hard to be a fundamental investor because we have to look at charts like this and say " so what? "  While instructive in letting us know how far TA people can be pushed to panic on PRICE – it doesn't change the VALUE of what the ETF holds.  Which is, in the case of DBC, 27% oil, 13% heating oil, 14% gasoline, 7.5% gold and the rest is mostly agriculture and other metals.  We are NOT buying DBC yet, but it gives you an idea of why materials stocks are in the tanker and why we are liking them down here.   BUT, the problem for the the market is – how can we have a proper rally when commodities are collapsing?  As I noted to Members last night – gold is already so cheap that we were eating it for dessert on my cruise last week and, if it goes any lower, The Donald will have to find something more expensive to decorate his house with – it's just getting silly at $1,350 . Not that I'm a huge fan of gold, it's just that I perceive a certain fundamental value to it based on supply, demand and the rate and cost of additional extraction that says this should be a good bottom for shiny bits of metal.   The fact that, at the moment, one guy is selling some of his shiny metal in a hurry and…

DBC WEEKLY"Or close up the wall with our English dead" is the 2nd part of that quote.  

It's not a rally when the commodities sector is in free-fall, is it?  Not even Henry V could rally the materials sector but perhaps we'll find a bit of support at DBC $25.50 that we didn't find at $26.75 – just two days ago.  We've been bottom-fishing the sector with individual miners (see this morning's Tweet from our Member Chat) but, so far – there's no bottom (Midsummer Night's Dream's lead character notwithstanding).  

As you can see from Dave Fry's chart, DBC hasn't broken down like this since last May so, of course, no one could have expected it to ever happen and, of course, it's the end of civilization as we know it and these stocks will just keep going down and down and down and will never recover because – this time is different! {end sarcasm font} 

It's very hard to be a fundamental investor because we have to look at charts like this and say "so what?"  While instructive in letting us know how far TA people can be pushed to panic on PRICE – it doesn't change the VALUE of what the ETF holds.  Which is, in the case of DBC, 27% oil, 13% heating oil, 14% gasoline, 7.5% gold and the rest is mostly agriculture and other metals.  We are NOT buying DBC yet, but it gives you an idea of why materials stocks are in the tanker and why we are liking them down here.  

RUT WEEKLYBUT, the problem for the the market is – how can we have a proper rally when commodities are collapsing?  As I noted to Members last night – gold is already so cheap that we were eating it for dessert on my cruise last week and, if it goes any lower, The Donald will have to find something more expensive to decorate his house with – it's just getting silly at $1,350.

Not that I'm a huge fan of gold, it's just that I perceive a certain fundamental value to it based on supply, demand and the rate and cost of additional extraction that says this should be a good bottom for shiny bits of metal.  

The fact that, at the moment, one guy is selling some of his shiny metal in a hurry and…
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