"UGL, SLW, AGQ, QQQ, IWM, RWM", "SP500 hitting resistance at 1372", "Weaker Q1 earnings expected"
Posted on March 05, 2012 at 13:54 PM EST


Ben Bernanke seemed to have given his peace-of-mind to the markets and Gold took it to the chin. And small caps seem to lead the path to the downside. While QQQ (Nasdaq 100) hardly seems to have any dent - largely influenced by AAPL's surge in prices. Treasury yields are still in the record low territory. All "Risk-on" indicators other than (NASDAQ/DOW Jones Industrial) is showing risk off as of this week.

Technically speaking, S&P 500 is testing 2008 high of 1372 and some resistance is expected at that level. But given that the percent of companies beating the expectation was lowest for Q4 since 2008 and with the Eurozone woes possibly affecting the Q1 corporate profits, we can expect sluggishness in the market for April/May earnings reports.

For the week starting February 27th, the market Sectors Returns (week over week) and Internals were the following:

SP 500:  0.28%
  • Volatility Index % change, VIX = -0.12%
  • Short term bond rate (average of 3 year and 5 year) = 0.625%
  • 10 year Treasury yield = 1.99%
  • Small Cap (IWM): -2.89%
  • Latin America (ILF): 1.73%
  • Europe (IEV): -0.77%
  • Emerging Markets (EEM): 1.02%

  • Commodities (DBC): -0.67%
  • Long term Bonds (TLT): -0.07%
  • US Dollar Index, 8 DMA: 79.89
  • Gold, (GLD) change: -3.42%
  •  
  • Put/Call Ratio, total of equity/Index = 0.95
  • Bull/Bear Ratio, Investors Intelligence survey = 
  • NYSE (New Highs - New lows), 8 DMA = 168.76

Next Week's economic calendar:
  • Factory Orders - 3/5
  • ADP employment change - 3/7
  • Unemployment report, Wholesale inventories - 3/1
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