As Wall Street rallies in stealth for some, your Wall Street Greek reminds you that
Markos Kaminis predicted on March 10 (the stock market's bottom) that it was time to "buy the news."
Wall Street rallied into the close on Friday, and turned in another positive week. The Dow Jones Industrials closed 1.9% higher through the five-day period, while the S&P 500 moved up 2.7% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 3.4%. The Nasdaq is up 17% from its low of March 10.
Might the end truly be here for the bears? In this reactionary, counter-reactionary world, I have found criticism from both bulls and bears over the course of the last twelve months. So-called "experts" and novices alike have jumped down my throat via email and commentary to my articles at the site when I prognosticated correctly ahead of the game and against the herd on both occasions. Did you know that I once again called another economic forecast to the very day. See this article published on March 10, 2008, the exact day the market bottomed.
Wall Street Greek predicted the very bottom of the stock market in 2008. If you've been reading, you know this is just another correct call in a series of prescient economic forecasts we've made.
Remember, it was "
The Greek" who began warning of this economic downturn as early as the winter of 2006. Then it was I again who forecast stock market recovery early this year, despite my expectations for ongoing economic softness. So, with all the headless chickens running around investing in stocks, I have to wonder why then investors find it logical that the even-keeled Warren Buffet and Peter Lynch are the greatest of all time?
The key to successful long-term investing is in
not letting emotions dictate your money flow, which is much harder said than done. Heck, equity mutual funds were still reporting outflows of capital as recently as the week before last. Meanwhile, stocks have been on the rise since March 10th. I bet you are surprised by that news, because during that span you've very likely been moving your money out stocks. It's a stealth rally if you are Main Street news centric, but for those of us well-versed in market phenomenon, we saw this coming. Plenty of capital is still on the sidelines, so as the herd gets on board, there should be plenty of opportunity still for latecomers. Even so, let's not rule out further market reconsideration, since GDP will be revised next week. Finally, our most important forecast yet: we view an Iran event as probable over the next few months, and that's not going to lead to peaceful times for investors, or anyone for that matter.
The Week Ahead
The coming week offers a relatively light load of economic data, but includes important information for economic forecasts.
Monday
On Monday, Leading Economic Indicators for April will provide insight into just how realistic the recession scenario is. Yes, that's right, we're not officially in a recession yet, though we expect that upon revision of first quarter GDP next week, there's a chance we'll see the economy contracted. Remember though, we need two quarters of contraction for an official "recession" label. Bloomberg's consensus of economists is looking for April Leading Indicators to have fallen 0.1% (rose 0.1% in March) despite the stock market's rise through the period. We remind you again, in case you missed it, market action is a leading economic indicator.
Internationally, markets in Canada, India, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand will be closed on Monday. Earnings season continues here in the states, driven greatly by the reporting of retailers for their first quarter ended in April. Monday's schedule includes Lowe's (
NYSE: LOW), Campbell Soup (
NYSE: CPB), DryShips (
Nasdaq: DRYS), Echelon (
Nasdaq: ELON), Excel Maritime (
NYSE: EXM), Arotech (
Nasdaq: ARTX), BMP Sunstone (
Nasdaq: BJGP), China GrenTech (
Nasdaq: GRRF), China Techfaith Wireless (
Nasdaq: CNTF), Elron Electronics (
Nasdaq: ELRN), Hastings Entertainment (
Nasdaq: HAST), Longtop Financial Technologies (
NYSE: LFT), Loral Space & Communications (
Nasdaq: LORL), Optibase (
Nasdaq: OBAS), Pacific Ethanol (
Nasdaq: PEIX), Perfect World (
Nasdaq: PWRD), Raven Industries (
Nasdaq: RAVN), Streamline Health Solutions (
Nasdaq: STRM), The9 Limited (
Nasdaq: NCTY) and a few more.
Tuesday
On Tuesday, State Street's Investor Confidence reading will be reported for May (April's was 72.8). This measure is rather current, since it is tallied on the second Tuesday of each month. Also, it's important to note that it measures the level of actual risk in investment portfolios. Indications are that there remain significant levels of cash within portfolios. Barron's reported that funds equal to 26% of total stock market value currently reside in cash alternatives, marking the greatest such level since 2003.
We very well may see an uptick in investor confidence, but consumer sentiment, which was reported on Friday by Reuters/University of Michigan, indicated consumers feel as bad now as they did in the early eighties. Remember though, sentiment is a lagging indicator, so that when consumers and investors think things are most dire, the economy/market is usually already in recovery. Guess what, we are already in recovery. The perhaps early cyclical heavy Nasdaq is doing especially well, up some 17% since March 10.
The Producer Price Index will also reach the wires on Tuesday, but this inflation gauge is likely to offer little interest to the market ahead of the report. Investors have already been primed by last week's moderate consumer price metric. We noted on the Wall Street
Greek website this past Wednesday that CPI benefited from petroleum price
back up that we already know reversed itself in May. At the same time, oil services pricing increased, as did food inflation. Thus, we found little reason to cheer the data, despite the market's positive interpretation. PPI is still worth paying attention to though, as producer prices continue to eventually find their way to your wallet. Bloomberg's consensus is looking for April's measure to have risen by 0.4% over March. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, is seen 0.2% higher. These barometers were up 1.1% and 0.2%, respectively, in March.
Of course, the weekly ICSC-UBS Same Store Sales Report is due before the market open on Tuesday. Remember, last week we estimated that the sharp rise in sales was probably a weather influenced figure, and we forecast a return to weak sales would likely result last week. We were right. Sales were only up 0.5% year-over-year last week, and fell 1.0% from the week before.
Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, a man not afraid to speak his mind, will address a group in New Orleans; the topic, the economic outlook. The Japanese Central Bank has an important decision to make Tuesday, and is seen holding rates steady at 0.5%. In the increasingly controversial Democratic Party contest, Obama and Hillary slug it out in Kentucky and Oregon.
While markets will be closed in India and Indonesia, Tuesday's U.S. earnings schedule includes news from Analog Devices (
NYSE: ADI), Hewlett-Packard (
NYSE: HPQ), Home Depot (
NYSE: HD), Medtronic (
NYSE: MDT), Saks Inc. (
NYSE: SKS), Target (
NYSE: TGT), Astro-Med (
Nasdaq: ALOT), AutoZone (
NYSE: AZO), China Sunergy (
Nasdaq: CSUN), Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (
NYSE: RDY), DRS Technologies (
NYSE: DRS), Dycom (
NYSE: DY), Elbit Systems (
Nasdaq: ESLT), Imperial Tobacco (
NYSE: ITY), Intuit (
Nasdaq: INTU), Metalink (
Nasdaq: MTLK), MF Global (
NYSE: MF), Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (
NYSE: MTU), Mobile Telesystems (
NYSE: MBT), NeoMagic (
Nasdaq: NMGC), Neonode (
Nasdaq: NEON), Palm Harbor Homes (
Nasdaq: PHHM), Phillips-Van Heusen (
NYSE: PVH), Quest Resource (
Nasdaq: QRCP), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (
Nasdaq: RRGB), Staples (
Nasdaq: SPLS), Tower Semiconductor (
Nasdaq: TSEM), United Natural Foods (
Nasdaq: UNFI), Virtusa (
Nasdaq: VRTU), WidePoint (
AMEX: WYY) and a few more.
Wednesday
The Federal Open Market Committee April meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, and the notes always offer economists material to debate with in regards to what the Fed will do next. As a result, it moves stocks, so pay attention to that on Wednesday afternoon at our website.
Look for the weekly reports from the Mortgage Bankers Association (Mortgage Activity) and the Energy Information Administration (Petroleum Status). Oil jumped back into record territory last week, driven again by geopolitical concerns and a perceived negative news report from Saudi Arabia. The Arabs were viewed as in defiance of President Bush when they said they would increase oil output if demand called for it. This was interpreted as a denial to Bush's request for more oil now. However,
The Greek interprets it this way, they will boost output when the war starts with Iran. That's actually good news, in a bad scenario.
Fed Governor Kevin Warsh grabs a microphone in Washington, as he addresses the use of the fed-funds rate tool in times of economic need. While we're on DC, a Senate committee will interview oil company executives on the price situation. House of Representatives committees will be busy studying sovereign wealth funds and sub-prime mortgage concerns.
While the Chilean market is shut, Wednesday's earnings reports here include BJ's Wholesale Club (
NYSE: BJ), Limited Brands (
NYSE: LTD), Napster (
Nasdaq: NAPS), NetEase.com (
Nasdaq: NTES), Ross Stores (Nasdaq: ROSS), Salesforce.com (
NYSE: CRM), Tsakos Energy Navigation (
NYSE: TNP), Tween Brands (
NYSE: TWB), 8X8, Inc. (
Nasdaq: EGHT), Abiomed (
Nasdaq: ABMD), Brady Corp. (
NYSE: BRC), Bristow Group (
NYSE: BRS), Brown Shoe Co. (
NYSE: BWS), CDC Corp. (
Nasdaq: CHINA), Charming Shoppes (
Nasdaq: CHRS), Citi Trends (
Nasdaq: CTRN), Computer Sciences (
NYSE: CSC), Cost Plus (
Nasdaq: CPWM), Eaton Vance (
NYSE: EV), Gladstone Investment (
Nasdaq: GAIN), Gymboree (
Nasdaq: GYMB), Hot Topic (
Nasdaq: HOTT), Jackson Hewitt Tax Service (
NYSE: JTX), Long's Drug Stores (
NYSE: LDG), NetApp (
Nasdaq: NTAP), Nordson (
Nasdaq: NDSN), Perry Ellis Int'l (
Nasdaq: PERY), PetSmart (
Nasdaq: PETM), Retalix (
Nasdaq: RTLX), Rosetta Genomics (
Nasdaq: ROSG), Semtech (
Nasdaq: SMTC), Solarfun Power Holdings (
Nasdaq: SOLF), Synopsys (
Nasdaq: SNPS), Talbots (
NYSE: TLB), Westell Technologies (
Nasdaq: WSTL), Zarlink Semiconductor (
NYSE: ZL) and more.
Thursday
After jobless claims were noted at 371K last week, this week's consensus view for new claims filings adds up to 370K. Also look for the weekly Natural Gas Report from the EIA at 10:30. Energy investors will want to keep a look out for the government's annual hurricane forecast, though it's been far from accurate in recent years.
Fed-man Randall Kroszner addresses a group of bankers in Florida, and Treasury Secretary Paulson participates in a panel discussion in Chicago.
Markets will be closed in Austria, Brazil, Poland and Frankfurt, Germany. Thursday's earnings reports include Aeropostale (
NYSE: ARO), Air France-KLM (Paris: AF.PA), AnnTaylor Stores (
NYSE: ANN), Barnes and Noble (
NYSE: BKS), Dick's Sporting Goods (
NYSE: DKS), Gamestop (
NYSE: GME), Gap Inc. (
NYSE: GPS), Hormel Foods (
NYSE: HRL), The Children's Place (
Nasdaq: PLCE), Alkermes (
Nasdaq: ALKS), Aruba Networks (
Nasdaq: ARUN), Black Box (
Nasdaq: BBOX), Blue Coat Systems (
Nasdaq: BCSI), Bon-Ton Stores (
Nasdaq: BONT), CA, Inc. (
Nasdaq: CA), ChinaEdu (
Nasdaq: CEDU), Columbus McKinnon (
Nasdaq: CMCO), Ditech Networks (
Nasdaq: DITC), Flowers Foods (
NYSE: FLO), Global Sources (
Nasdaq: GSOL), Hibbett Sports (
Nasdaq: HIBB), Ixys Corp. (
Nasdaq: IXYS), Linktone (
Nasdaq: LTON), Mentor Graphics (
Nasdaq: MENT), Met-Pro (
NYSE: MPR), New York & Co. (
NYSE: NWY), Opnext (
Nasdaq: OPXT), Pacific Sunwear (
Nasdaq: PSUN), Patterson Dental (
Nasdaq: PDCO), Sanderson Farms (
Nasdaq: SAFM), Shiloh Industries (
Nasdaq: SHLO), Ship Finance Int'l (
NYSE: SFL), Stage Stores (
NYSE: SSI), Stein Mart (
Nasdaq: SMRT), Suntech Power (
NYSE: STP), Tech Data (
Nasdaq: TECD), Telvent (
Nasdaq: TLVT), The Buckle (
NYSE: BKE), The Cato Corp. (
NYSE: CTR), Toro (
NYSE: TTC), Trans World Entertainment (
Nasdaq: TWMC), Verigy (
Nasdaq: VRGY), Zale (
NYSE: ZLC) and Zumiez (
Nasdaq: ZUMZ).
Friday
On Friday, we'll see if this week's positive Housing Starts report has a solid base. Existing Home Sales for the month of April are set for release. We theorized on Friday, in our article entitled "
Housing Starts See Seasonal Impact Despite Adjustment," that housing benefited from an abnormal current period that applied an irrelevant average seasonal adjustment. We were in fact the sole voice discussing this possibility, while everyone else just passed it off as an anomaly without offering solid basis. We might see the same type of
positive housing news in this Friday's report, so be wary when the market starts betting on housing recovery prematurely. Bloomberg's consensus sees the annual pace of existing home sales running at 4.85 million in April, compared to 4.93 in March.
Bond markets close at 2:00 p.m. on Friday, ahead of the Memorial Day weekend holiday. The sole noteworthy earnings report we could find for Friday was Nordic American Tanker Shipping (
NYSE: NAT).
Keep up with daily market happenings with us all week long.
Please see our disclosure at www.wallstreetgreek.blogspot.com. Article also interests AMEX: DIA, AMEX: SPY, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: QLD.
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